Every major online site is picking Ohio State to edge Boise State for a BCS bowl bid. ESPN.com has Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl, while College Football News & Scout.com places Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl with both leaving Boise State in either the home-town Humanitarian Bowl or the Poinsettia Bowl. But Boise State is ranked ahead of Ohio State in the BCS as well as both the AP & USA Today polls. This lead to a bit of research:
- Boise State is 12-0 (8-0 WAC), Ohio State 10-2 (7-1 Big Ten)
- Boise State is currently #9 in the AP, USA Today & BCS rankings, Ohio State is #10 in all 3. The Harris Poll, a piece of the BCS formula, also has Boise State ahead of Ohio State.
- Boise State is ranked #7 by the computer average of the BCS, Ohio State is ranked #11.
- In the past two seasons, Boise State has one more win that Ohio State in BCS Bowl games; Boise State is 1-0 while Ohio State is 0-2.
- The BCS Average for Boise State is .7034, for Ohio State .6340, a difference of .0694. The only other substantial gap this big in the Top 10 is between #4 Florida (.8851) an obvious title contender and #5 USC (.8076), a team on the outside looking in.
- Boise State went 8-0 against bowl-eligible teams (6-6 or better) including a win over BCS #19 Oregon.
- Ohio State went 5-2 over bowl-eligible teams including losses to BCS #5 USC, #8 Penn State and wins over BCS #21 Michigan State and #22 Northwestern.
The numbers do not lie; the Broncos deserve the BCS much more than Ohio State, a team that would make it based on program history/reputation (which is questionable based on recent bowl history) and the almighty dollar. While Boise State fans traveled very well for the Fiesta Bowl two season ago with nearly 40,000 tickets sold, Ohio State fans are known to travel as well as anyone in the nation.
So will fairness prevail in the BCS in 2008? Or will the BCS ensure that the $17 million payout stays with their favorites, the BCS conference teams in an effort to futher the gap between the haves and have-nots? I guess we will find out tomorrow night…