Pac 10 Football Preview - Week #14
Friday, November 28th, 2008With their starting quarterback and star running back sidelined with shoulder injuries, the Oregon State Beavers pulled off a last-minute comeback at Arizona. The Beavers’ 19-17 victory kept them on track to earn their first Rose Bowl berth since the 1964 season.
Trailing the Arizona Wildcats 17-16 with 1:19 remaining in their Pac-10 clash in Tucson last Saturday, the Beavers drove from their own 20-yard line to the Arizona 7. The key play in the series was a 47-yard pass from backup quarterback Sean Canfield to receiver Sammie Stroughter.
Canfield, a junior who threw for 224 yards and a touchdown in relief of injured starter Lyle Moevao, found Stroughter alone and beyond the defense along the left side. It was the fifth catch of the night for Stroughter, a senior who finished with 116 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The big play set up a 24-yard field goal attempt for Oregon State sophomore Justin Kahut, whose successful kick sailed through the uprights with no time left, lifting the Beavers to the 19-17 triumph.
At 7-1 in the conference, the Beavers are deadlocked with USC atop the Pac-10 standings. Each of the leaders has one league game remaining, but Oregon State owns the tie-breaker advantage based upon a 27-21 victory over the Trojans on Sept. 25.
Here is a look at this week’s match-ups involving Pac-10 teams, beginning with a rivalry showdown that has direct Rose Bowl implications.
Oregon (8-3 overall, 6-2 Pac-10) @ Oregon State (8-3, 7-1)
7 p.m. EST Saturday
All that stands now between the 17th-ranked Beavers and their first trip to Pasadena in 44 years is one more Pac-10 opponent. That foe, however, is no ordinary adversary. The 19th-ranked Oregon Ducks, who are averaging 39.8 points per game this season to lead the conference in scoring offense, would like nothing better than to spoil the Beavers’ plans in this in-state grudge match known as the Civil War.
The high-powered Ducks, who also lead the league in total offense (at 458.5 yards per game) and rushing offense (with 268.1 yards per contest), feature game-breaking running backs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount as well as dual-threat quarterback Jeremiah Masoli. Johnson (with 863 yards) and Blount (816 yards) are ranked fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Pac-10 in rushing. Masoli has passed for 1,212 yards and has rushed for 559.
Oregon State is ranked fourth in the conference in scoring offense (at 32.4 points per game) and third in total offense (at 414.2 yards per contest), but the Beavers could be without two of their main weapons in Moevao and freshman tailback Jacquizz Rodgers.
Moevao is aiming to come back from the shoulder injury that kept him out last week. If Moevao can’t play, the Beavers will again rely upon Canfield.
Rodgers, the Pac-10’s leading rusher with 1,253 yards, left the game against Arizona in the first quarter with a shoulder sprain. Oregon State head coach Mike Riley said this week that Rodgers is doubtful to play against Oregon.
Rodgers’ brother James Rodgers rushed for 102 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries last week at Arizona. James Rodgers, a sophomore wide receiver, has caught 50 passes for 612 yards this season for the Beavers. His per-game average of 55.6 yards receiving ranks fifth in the Pac-10.
Stroughter is the Pac-10 leader in receiving with 73.4 yards per game, for a season total of 807.
Oregon State holds a statistical edge defensively over Oregon. The Beavers rank second behind USC in the Pac-10 in scoring defense (at 21.4 points per game, tied with California) and second in total defense (allowing 289.6 yards per game). Oregon is rated sixth in the conference in scoring defense (27.1 points per game) and seventh in total defense (375.7 yards per game).
Oregon stands alone in third place in the Pac-10 standings, one game ahead of California, which posted a 37-16 victory last week over rival Stanford (5-7, 4-5). The Cal Golden Bears (7-4, 5-3) will close out their league season on Dec. 6 with a home game against Washington (0-11, 0-8).
Last year’s Civil War game between Oregon and Oregon State was a classic in Eugene, as the visiting Beavers defeated the Ducks, 38-31 in double-overtime. James Rodgers scored the winning touchdown for Oregon State on a 25-yard run in the second overtime.
Saturday’s game at Reser Stadium in Corvallis should be another thriller.
Prediction: Oregon 31, Oregon State 28
UCLA (4-6, 3-4) @ Arizona State (4-6, 3-4)
9:30 p.m. EST Friday
The loser of this night-after-Thanksgiving match-up in Tempe will be eliminated from bowl consideration, while the winner will need to post another victory on Dec. 6 to earn post-season eligibility. Both teams will play in rivalry games on Dec. 6, when Arizona State will travel down Interstate 10 to battle Arizona in the Duel in the Desert and UCLA will host cross-town foe USC.
Arizona State has won two straight after floundering through a six-game losing streak. The Sun Devils blanked Washington State, 31-0, in their most-recent game on Nov. 15, posting their first shutout since a 19-0 triumph over top-ranked Nebraska in 1996.
The Bruins also played stellar defense in their last game, forcing five turnovers in a 27-7 win at Washington on Nov. 15.
Arizona State defeated UCLA last year, 24-20, as tailback Keegan Herring rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Prediction: Arizona State 23, UCLA 17
Notre Dame (6-5) @ USC (9-1)
8 p.m. EST Saturday
The Trojans have won six in a row in their non-conference rivalry against the Fighting Irish. Last year’s game in South Bend was no contest, as Mark Sanchez threw four touchdown passes to lead USC to a 38-0 rout.
The rugged USC defense, which is allowing just 8.3 points and 222.5 yards per game, should dominate the Irish again.
Prediction: USC 31, Notre Dame 3
Washington State (2-10) @ Hawaii (6-5)
11 p.m. EST Saturday
Washington State edged rival Washington last week, 16-13 in double-overtime, as Nico Grasu kicked a 28-yard field goal on the final play of regulation to tie the game and then booted a 37-yarder in the second overtime to win it.
The dramatic victory was the Cougars’ first of the year in Pac-10 competition. Washington State fans stormed the field in jubilation afterward, as the Cougars won the Apple Cup for the second consecutive season.
The Hawaii Warriors, meanwhile, have scored 91 points in their last two games, defeating New Mexico State, 42-30, and Idaho, 49-17.
Washington State has allowed 546 points this season for a per-game average of 45.5.
Prediction: Hawaii 52, Washington State 17
By Tom Kessler
DFN Sports Staff Writer