By Gabriel Baumgaertner,
After a tumultuous college football season riddled with upsets and injuries, many have looked to the basketball season for stability within the Top 25 rankings. The upset trend appeared to creep into basketball with unknown Gardner-Webb University beating the lauded Kentucky Wildcats 84-68 in Lexington. The college basketball world had barely recovered from the Gardner-Webb shock before witnessing super-recruit O.J. Mayo’s USC debut ruined by the Mercer Bears of Macon, Georgia. Though basketball has frequently been more vulnerable to the upset than football, the point differential of these upsets has many analysts believing that even the smallest conference opponents are formidable. The Pac-10, thought to be the best overall conference of the 2007-2008 season, has already been bit three times by the small conference upset, with USC losing to Mercer 96-81,Oregon losing to St. Mary’s 99-87 and Stanford losing to Siena 79-67. How would those upsets affect this season’s first rankings…
1. UCLA (6-0)
A CBE Classic Championship and the exposure of Kevin Love’s physical side has Westwood excited and the rest of the Pac-10 frightened. Though it is far too early to say whether Love has lived up to the extraordinary expectations placed upon him, he has certainly made a strong impression in the first six games of his freshman season. Love was highly regarded for his passing and scoring abilities coming out of Lake Oswego High School in Lake Oswego, Oregon, but his rebounding and toughness were called into question by some. Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad attempted to test Love’s brawn by frequently double-teaming him and engaging in a series of physical rebound battles. Love responded by grabbing eleven rebounds and scoring twenty-one points en route to a come-from-behind 68-63 victory over the No. 10 Spartans. The standout play of Russell Westbrook has also elevated UCLA. Averaging twelve points and six assists in replacing injured All-American point guard Darren Collison, the Bruins have a third guard (complimenting Collison and Josh Shipp) with proven scoring ability. Once Collison is able to return, one will be hard-pressed to find holes in this shockingly potent UCLA squad. Facing only one more difficult non-conference challenge with a Dec. 2 bout against the Texas Longhorns, UCLA may very well begin Pac-10 play undefeated.
2. Washington State (6-0)
The Cougars are finally targeted this season, as they are no longer the surprise team that took the Pac-10 by storm last year. Coach Tony Bennett has never been one to gloat over his team’s performance, even after big wins (when asked whether he felt his team had the best defense in the Pac-10 after allowing 26 points to Mississippi Valley State, Bennet responded “Ask me that when we play a Pac-10 team.”) Bennett’s team has hardly been challenged yet, with the only close game coming from Air Force. However, the play of Derrick Low, Kyle Weaver and and Taylor Rochestie has been encouraging. All three have showcased 20 point games and are proven scorers. If Darvin Harmeling, who missed all but one game of the 2006-2007 season, can stay healthy, Washington State will have a fourth solid scoring option to complement the strongest defense in the Pac-10. With state rivals Gonzaga coming to Pullman on Dec. 2, the defensive minded, slow paced Cougars look to make a solid impression on a national stage. If the defensive play and offensive consistency continue, look for many opponents to get pulverized in Pullman.
3. USC (5-1)
This spot probably should go to Oregon, but I still cannot get over the Ducks pitiful defensive performance against the Gaels of St. Mary’s. While several Duck fans will be quick to point out the beating the Trojans suffered at the hands of the Mercer Bears, the Trojans have strung together a series of solid wins while the Ducks face their first true test when they visit Kansas State on Thursday. Super-Freshman OJ Mayo has immediately become the focus of the Trojan offense, avearging just under 22 points a game, and has received tremendous support from fellow freshman Davon Jefferson as well as sophomore Daniel Hackett. Most were skeptical about the Trojans ability to score outside of Mayo this year, having lost top scorers Nick Young, Gabe Pruitt and Lodrick Stewart. USC’s talent shined in their 70-45 domination of No. 19 Southern Illinois, smothering the Salukis defensively and shooting 60% from the floor. Taj Gibson presents a broodish inside presence that should take care of most rebounding responsiblities and help the Trojans develop some form of inside game. If the Trojans can keep up the fast, sharpshooting guard play, they should be able to establish themselves near the top of the conference.
4. Oregon (6-1)
The Ducks have remained in the top 25 despite their embarrassing loss to St. Mary’s just over a week ago, and rebounded nicely with a 110-79 thrashing of University of San Francisco. However, the Ducks have yet to prove they can play defense- at all, and such inconsistency does not belong in the top 25. My skepticism stems from the fact that St. Mary’s did not shoot the ball that well, draining 47% of their shots. 47% is a very solid night, but a squad with talent like Oregon’s should easily overcome a good shooting night by a clearly inferior team. While defense is a big concern for Ernie Kent’s kids, their ability to put the ball in the hoop certainly is not. Oregon has five players averaging in double figures, and have proven themselves one of the most versatile teams in the country. While most praise is directed toward senior guard Malik Hairston, the unsung hero is definitely senior Maarty Leunen, who has proven that he can score both inside and beyond the three point arc. It will be fun to see whether the Ducks can contain freshman phenom Michael Beasely in their visit to Kansas State on Wednesday. If Kent’s club surrendered 37 points to St. Mary’s freshman Patty Mills, who knows what a supreme talent like Beasely could do to this defense.
5. Arizona (3-2)
I hate the fact that I am putting this team here because of how weak I truly think they are, but taking Kansas to OT in an intensely passionate game at Allen Fieldhouse elevates them to the #5 spot. I firmly believe that the ‘Cats have no solid options behind Chase Budinger and Jared Bayless and that will haunt them when Pac-10 play begins. My confidence in the Arizona team comes from the fact that they have been playing sans coach Lute Olson for all five games thus far and I do not believe senior guard Jawann McClellan has played to his full potential. Bayless is emerging as one of the better point guards in the Pac-10, averaging 18 points and 5 assists per game in his first five games as a Wildcat. Arizona’s two losses are by a combined seven points to two teams that played in the NCAA Tournament last year (Virginia and Kansas), but they have yet to defeat a formidable squad, as Missouri-Kansas City, Adams State and Northern Arizona are not foes the Wildcats will see in the postseason. Their matchup against #9 Texas A&M at home should be an accurate barometer of where the Cats will stand in this year’s ferocious Pac-10 field.
6. California (3-0)
I should not be ranking Cal, instead I should put “TBA” next to their ranking, since they truly have not played enough to be given a fair assessment. Devon Hardin is expected to lead the Golden Bears back from a disappointing 2006-2007 campaign, but Hardin has been shut down offensively by both Nichols State and San Diego State. The Bears have used Hardin mainly as a decoy in their first three games, delegating most of the scoring to sophomores Ryan Anderson and Patrick Christopher, averaging 20 and 21 points per game respectively. Though the team has been riddled with injuries (until the return of Jerome Randle on Saturday, the Bears dressed only two scholarship guards), Cal was able to overcome a fourteen point defecit to defeat a strong San Diego State squad. Nikola Knezevic has emerged as a strong guard alongside Randle, seamlessly running the offense, fastbreak and displaying shutdown defense in each of the three games thus far. Ben Braun’s squad will face its first difficult non-conference opponents in Nevada, Missouri, Jackson State and Kansas State, four teams that qualified for postseason play last March. If Hardin can continue his defensive paint dominance (averaging fourteen rebounds and just under three blocks in the first three games) and Anderson and Christopher can score with continued efficiency, the Golden Bears will be a feared team.
7. Stanford (7-1)
I am certainly lowballing the Cardinal here. This is not because of how they match up with the other major Pac-10 squads, rather their complete lack of difficult non-conference opponents. An unranked Texas Tech team is the only challenge that Stanford faces heading into Pac-10 play, and none of the eight games, with the exception of UC Santa Barbara, have featured a team that could appear in the NCAA Tournament. An upset loss to Siena dropped Stanford from the top 25 ranks, and they have yet to find their way back despite three consecutive wins since the embarrassing loss to the Saints of Albany. The most obvious absence is that of the academically ineligible Brook Lopez, who combined with his twin brother Robin, made for an unmatched post presence both offensively and defensively last year. Because of Lopez’s academic ineptitude, Coach Trent Johnson has turned to a guard focused scoring attack, relying on sharpshooters Lawrence Hill, Anthony Goods, Landry Fields and Kenny Brown for a deadly perimeter shooting. With transfer point guard Drew Shiller and returning starter Mitch Johnson, the Cardinal might be the deepest backcourt in the Pac-10. I have an inclination that this team will be much higher as conference play commences, but they certainly are not preparing themselves well with a soft non-conference schedule.
8. Washington (4-2)
Lorenzo Romar’s club appears to already miss the one-and-done Spencer Hawes, as they have struggled mightily with ranked opponents Syracuse and Texas A&M to start the season. The bright side of this raw Husky team is that they have three players averaging double figures with one of their leading scorers, Ryan Appelby, continuing to recover from a nagging hand injury. Jon Brockman has emerged as the token “beast” of the Pac-10, reminiscent of Bryant “Big Country” Reeves that led Oklahoma State to the 1995 Final Four. Brockman leads Washington in both points and rebounds per game and has established himself as the team’s go-to-guy. The Huskies have also received solid offensive production from guard Justin Detmon and forward Quincy Pondexter and a great navigator in point guard Venoy Overton. Though Brockman is an intimidating inside presence, his backup options are grim if he suffers from foul trouble that has hindered him in the past or an effective double team. Road tests against Oklahoma State and LSU loom as well as a home bout against No. 14 Pittsburgh, giving the Huskies plenty of challenges before conference play.
9. Arizona State (3-1)
Jeff Pendergraph and James Harden are two names that will soon be taking the Pac-10 by storm. Harden was one of the top prospects in the class of 2007 and made a surprise commitment to ASU along with local Arizona native Ty Abbot and East Coast product Kraidon Woods. Pendergraph, a high school teammate of UCLA point guard Darren Collison, is regarded by some as the best rebounder in the Pac-10. Harden, Pendergraph and Abbot have been responsible for most of the scoring in their three victories thus far, including a hard-fought overtime victory over LSU. Reserves Derek Glasser and Duke transfer Eric Boateng are expected to contribute big off of the bench. Glasser started most of last year, but the arrival of Harden, Abbot and Christian Polk has meant a decreased role for the sophomore. Herb Sendek looks as if he has already begun the transformation of a notoriously bad basketball program, but a road test at Nebraska and a home date against No. 23 Xavier will display the real talents of the youthful Sun Devils.
10. Oregon State (3-2)
It is a miracle that coach Jay John has not been fired already. Coming into the season on the hottest of hot seats, John did not exactly thrill Beaver Nation with losses to Colorado State and Alaska-Fairbanks (a team that had lost by 58 points to California one week earlier). OSU does not face a difficult non-conference schedule, but they will need all the wins they can get, as they are sure to be dominated in conference play. Seth Tarver has been the do-it-all guy for the Beavers thus far, leading the team in all major scoring categories. The Beavers have a decent rebounder in Roeland Schaftenaar, but fellow big man Sean Carter has failed to prove himself as the defensive standout he was expected to be. I firmly believe this team will win two games or fewer come Pac-10 play, and Corvallis will be searching for somebody to revive this utterly lifeless basketball program.