Pac 10 Sports Blog

By Gabriel Baumgaertner

After California’s 45-31 defeat of Tennessee in the first major college football game of the 2007 season, most college football fans and analysts agreed that November 10th would be the week determining the Pac-10 champion. Many envisioned the explosive California and USC offenses lighting up the Memorial Stadium scoreboard and wondered if this would be DeSean Jackson’s time to conquer a team that ignored him in the recruiting process. Those expectations held until the “best college football team ever” in USC somehow lost to a Stanford team that won one game just a year ago using a quarterback that leading into the game had never completed a collegiate pass. While USC’s freak loss essentially placed Cal in the driver’s seat for the Pac-10 title, Cal would falter just one week later to a strong run-based attack from the Oregon State Beavers coupled with an ill-advised decision from Redshirt Freshman quarterback Kevin Riley with fourteen seconds left. Now, a combined five losses later, the game does not carry the implications many envisioned, but it certainly highlights the Pac-10 Weekend of November 10th.

#9 Arizona State (8-1, 5-1) at UCLA (5-4, 4-2)
“Frustration” only begins to describe the UCLA season, as the #14 team at the beginning of the season has now fallen to a disappointing 5-4, with those four losses coming against teams with a combined record of 14-23. Though UCLA has had glimmers of greatness with strong victories over Cal and Oregon State, key injuries and a constant quarterback shuffle has resulted in consecutive forgettable performances against Washington State and Arizona. ASU was another temporary BCS darling until their loss to Oregon last week. While ASU’s national championship hopes are essentially gone, they still have a chance at their first ever BCS appearance with victories in the rest of their games. With one of the top defenses in the Pac-10 coupled with devastating comeback ability (overcoming defecits of 19-0, 14-0 and 13-0 in games against Oregon State, Colorado and Cal), the Sun Devils still have one of the stronger squads in the Pac-10. Quarterback Rudy Carpenter has silenced critics among accusations of immaturity and has turned in a season to make Sun Devil fans forget the Sam Keller soap opera. It is hard to imagine the UCLA offense (decimated by injuries to top running backs Khalil Bell and Chris Markey) will be able to generate anything against the fierce ASU defensive front. Expect a big day out of Carpenter and backup running back Kegan Herring, who has emerged as a solid #1 back with the season ending injury to former starter Ryan Torain. Then again UCLA has that upset potential… not in this case.

Prediction: ASU 31 UCLA 13

Stanford (3-6, 2-5) at Washington State (3-6, 1-5)
Stanford’s unlikely transformation from one of the worst programs in college football to the first team to defeat USC at home in six years proved that this is a far different Stanford team than the 2006 Cardinal squad. Stanford’s season will of course be remembered by their 24-23 defeat of then #1 USC, but that has not been the only strong Stanford performance this year. This is a team that was leading Oregon at halftime, put up 36 points on a potent TCU defense, and contained explosive Arizona QB Willie Tuitama en route to a 21-20 victory over the Wildcats. Struggles have returned in recent weeks, though, with only a combined 15 points in two weeks against Oregon State and Washington as well as allowing 388 rushing yards- an astonishing 255 to running back Louis Rankin- against the Huskies. The Cougars have not been dismal this season, with a solid victory over UCLA and strong defensive showings against Arizona State and Cal, but with no legitimate targets for quarterback Alex Brink and an underdeveloped running game, the Cougars are not the offensive juggernaut that started the year strongly against Wisconsin. The difference maker will be backup running back Kevin McCall, stepping in for injured starter Dwight Tardy. McCall saw limited action in last week’s loss against California, as the Cougars opted to throw for about three-quarters of their plays, but the gameplan this week will certainly be different with Stanford’s questionable run defense. Pullman is always a tough place to play, and I do not see Stanford moving the ball much against a fairly strong Washington State pass defense. Despite Washington State’s inability to stop the run, Stanford’s ground game has been almost non-existent all year with the season-ending injury to sophomore Toby Gerhart. It will be close, but the Cougs get the nod with the homefield advantage.

Prediction: WSU 23 Stanford 20

#12 USC (7-2, 4-2) at #24 California (6-3, 3-3)
In August and September, many anticipated this coming Saturday in Strawberry Canyon as a game with far more than just a Pac-10 championship on the line. Coupled with Rose Bowl and possibly Sugar Bowl hopes, ESPN College Gameday, primetime scheduling and a final sense of accomplishment for West Coast Football would permeate the Berkeley evening. Though the game will still be broadcast nationally and be pertinent in the Pac-10 standings, a shot at the Holiday Bowl, not any BCS game, will be the bowl at stake. Cal enters the game still hurting from their missed chance at #1 in the country, performing poorly in losses at UCLA and Arizona State and turning in a disappointing offensive game in a win against Washington State. The Cal defense will be coming off by far its strongest showing of the year, holding Washington State out of the end zone until the last twenty seconds of the game, as well as holding the Cougars well below their averages in time of possession, points and total offense. The Bears offense will once again be led by a hardly healthy Nate Longshore, whose faulty ankle has hindered his (and the entire Cal offense’s) performance in his three starts since he was injured in the Bears’ win against Oregon. The Trojans enter this game coming off of their strongest victory since defeating Nebraska in September. The USC defense sacked Oregon State quarterback nine times and held the Beavers to only 176 yards of total offense en route to a 24-3 victory. The Trojan offense was rusty, with quarterback John David Booty admitting his rust after sitting out the last four weeks with a hand injury, but a strong performance from running back Chauncey Washington and solid protection from the offensive line assured the game was never particularly close. Many remember Cal’s 2003 victory over USC, taking three overtimes and a heroic kick from then kicker Tyler Fredrickson to defeat the heavily favored Trojan squad led by Matt Leinart. A Cal victory on Saturday would not be quite as surprising, but the recent uninspired performances must change if the more than capable Cal offense is to challenge the fierce Trojan pass rush. If Cal turns in a defensive performance similar to last Saturday, they should force the continually mediocre John David Booty into bad throws and contain the ground game in Chauncey Washington and Stafon Johnson. Cal needs a solid performance from running back Justin Forsett and must utilize tight end Craig Stevens to open up wide receivers Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins and Robert Jordan. Though the past few performances have not been great, the whole city of Berkeley will be fired up for this game, and USC’s already lackluster showings will continue. DeSean gets redemption on the school that did not want him.

Prediction: Cal 31 USC 20

Washington (3-6, 1-5) at Oregon State (5-4, 3-3)
Washington is coming off their strongest performance since their near upset of USC five weeks ago; destroying Stanford 27-9 with 388 yards on the ground and 539 yards of total offense. The Huskes certainly welcomed the victory, halting a six game losing streak and giving them their first conference victory of the year. Oregon State is coming from the opposite side of the spectrum, having had a three game winning streak recently ended by USC and dropping them to 3-3 in the conference. The absence of star running back Yvenson Bernard certainly hurt the Beavers, as they could not establish anything on the ground all day, resulting in three points. Washington has one of the more exciting freshmen in the Pac-10 in quarterback Jake Locker, a hybrid QB reminiscent of fomer Washington quarterback Marques Tuiasosopo. Locker is the leading rusher and passer for the Husky squad, who also received a career day from starting tailback Louis Rankin, rushing for 255 yards against a woeful Stanford defense. The Beavers need Bernard in order to be successful offensively. Quarterback Sean Canfield has yet to establish himself as a disciplined passer, and despite solid protection from the offensive line (except for last week), Canfield leads the Pac-10 in interceptions. Both Canfield and Bernard’s status are questionable for Saturday’s game, leading me to believe that the Beavers’ offense will not be at its best. Though Corvallis is always a very difficult place to play, I like the Huskies returning to early season form in an upset of the upstart Beavers.

Prediction: Washington 24 Oregon State 13

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 8th, 2007 at 8:15 pm and is filed under Pac 10 Football. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.