We are still early in non-conference play and most teams haven’t started their conference schedules. Now would be a good time for a MVC preview as I will try to predict where each team will finish in the conference standings.
1. Southern Illinois- Despite two early season losses to Indiana and USC, both Top 25 teams, the Salukis are still the dominant force in the Missouri Valley. Their defense has been excellent this year, forcing contested shots, putting pressure on opposing players, and holding opponents to just 51 points a game. They slow the pace down to their comfort level, and always take opponents out of their style. Southern Illinois has struggled a bit on offense, as they don’t have a bail-out scorer. Although Randal Falker and Chris Shaw have contributed nicely, the Salukis are not scoring as much on fastbreak points, layups or open shots as in the past. The scoring has been a little harder to get. Southern Illinois buys into their intense defensive system and that will wear down their conference opponents and I expect them to win the Missouri Valley Conference.
2. Creighton - This is a team that is balanced on both sides of the ball. On offense, each player contributes as their starters are all averaging close to 10 points per game. They pass the ball well, finding the open shooter or creating more opportunities. The Bluejays play good fundamental basketball, scoring on a lot of possessions, but a small weakness is the fact that they do have short strecthes in a game with frequent turnovers. On defense, Creighton plays very consistently, so far they are holding opponents to under 60 points per game. They are composed and have been forcing 12 steals and 18 turnovers a game. The Bluejays are forcing opponents into taking lots of mid-range or jump shots, not allowing many “easy points.”Creighton is a solid team that will get an NCAA Tournament berth, but will finish second in the MVC.
3. Northern Iowa- Although they are not as impressive on paper, this team knows how to win games. Their offense is average up until this point, but the Panthers are a balanced scoring team. They fight for their points and get just enough for a win. In their wins, the Panthers have slowed the pace down in close games to preserve their lead and get the best available shots. Northern Iowa’s defense is ahead of their offense, they have held all teams to under 70 points, and five under 60 points. They put pressure on ballhandlers and try to take away points in the paint and close shots. The Panthers don’t force much turnovers but still shut down teams. Look for them to make a run in the conference tournament.
4. Drake- A surprise team this year and not one used to being this high in the standings. Their up-tempo offense is clicking and their scoring is coming pretty easy. A lot of fastbreak or quick shots for the Bulldogs and they are making most of them. Their offense has been tiring opponents in the second half of games, where they either pull away from other teams or extend their lead. The Bulldogs will keep on shooting until the game ends. The defense is under no pressure since Drake is scoring so much. Despite this, Drake is allowing about 58 points per game, which is great considering their up-tempo pace. Drake is a good 3-point shooting team, at 40%. They will rely on their offense and expect some stops by their defense to win games. They have the potential to surprise some of the tougher MVC teams, but need to play their best. A winning conference record leaves them with a decent chance of making the NCAA tournament.
5. Bradley- A team known for their home court advantage and decent shooting. They create opportunities to score, with quick passing, driving to the basket and fastbreak points. When shots are going in, they will go on a roll and start to pull away from teams. When they are missing, the Braves find themselves falling behind. Bradley has a nice shooting percentage at about 47% and their point guard Daniel Ruffin is small but lethal. The Braves have been okay on defense, but this is not their strong point. They do play at the pace of their opponent, and this can have varying efefcts in games, depending on the quality of the team they’re facing. Bradley can be a different team on the road, which will lead to an up and down season, but they still have a chance at doing well in the conference.
6. Missouri State- I know they return 4 seniors and are experienced. They have traditonally done better in the past few years and are accustomed to postseason play. They have not played a difficult non-conference schedule, which gives them a good record so far. Their offense is averaging in the high 60’s and they have been scoring on a lot of possessions, with a field goal percentage of 47% and over 1.3 points per shot. But their rebounding is currently the lowest out of all MVC teams at just 30 rebounds per game. This means litle second chance points and when they play tough defensive teams, their offense will be forced to shoot very well or else be shut down. On defense, their man-to-man pressure is doing okay, not creating many turnovers, but at least contesting shots. They have been controlling the pace of the game and that also allows for less points. Unfortunately, several MVC teams play at a slower, defensive-minded pace and the Bears will not be able to match up against the top teams. This is not a vintage Missouri State team and they will struggle against good competition. Look for a .500 season in conference play.
7. Wichita State- Ranked a little lower than usual, but they have not beaten anyone decent. Their offense has gone through tough strectches in their losses and that completely takes them out of contention for the win. They don’t have a go-to player that can score at will or make clutch shots in tight games. I don’t think they can play consistently when facing elite teams like Southern Illinois, Creighton, or Northen Iowa. The rebounding has been okay, but the field goal shooting is the third worst percentage among MVC teams. One bright spot is they are averaging less turnovers than last year, with 14 per game. It’s hard to pinpoint their defense, since all 7 games so far have been against slow-paced teams that rank towards the bottom in possessions per game and points per game, or are against teams with bad records. I will say the defense is average and nothing special. The biggest problem for Wichita State will be scoring against good teams and making clutch shots. I see them struggling to be .500 in conference play, with no chance of making a run in the MVC tournament.
8. Illinois State- A team that looks to have improved on paper, but they only beat weak teams. They have no experience in postseason play or winning against good Missouri Valley teams. Illinois State has been trying to get better in recent years, but are simply overmatched and unable to bring in good recruits to improve. In their wins, they have scored over 70 points, but again against lesser competition. A good defensive opponent can just put pressure on the shooter, forcing bad shots and no offensive rebounds. Most teams will be able to apply man-to-man or a rotating zone defense to shut down Illinois State. Just guarding all of their shots will be enough to limit their offense, there is no key or superstar player for the Redbirds. Illinois State has not been a good defensive team in past conference play, and it will stay the same this year. They will be outmatched and forced to play from behind. Look for opponents to penetrate and drive to the basket for easy shots or fastbreak points when they wear out the Redbirds. Illinois State will be trailing by halftime in many of their conference games. They should get a few wins, but that will be it.
9. Indiana State- A team most known because of Larry Bird, with little to cheer for in recent years. The glory for this team is gone and won’t be coming back anytime soon. I will give them credit for scheduling some tough non-conference teams in Butler, Purdue, Miami Ohio, and North Texas. But they have no wins among playing those teams and expect another rough year for the Sycamores. Scoring is a problem as so many of their shots are with little time on the shot clock or well contested. Shooters are sometimes double teamed when attempting a shot, and this is due to either bad passing or not enough penetration to force open shots. This team will shoot many long-distance jump shots and won’t get a lot of easy points. It’s hard for Indiana State to play defense when they are behind so much. They are forced to desperately play catch up because they can’t convert on scoring chances. Although they get over 1/3 of their rebounds on the offensive end, they still can’t average more than 64 points per game. This also means less defensive rebounds and more second chances for opponents. Indiana State will be tired at the end of games, allowing opponents to hold on to leads. They might not finish last, but their is very little hope during this season.
10. Evansville- A team with almost no publicity and least known in the MVC. Do they deserve any better? Not really, as they have little to show for their efforts. They are struglling on offense, with just 56 points per game and 29 rebounds per game. There is little action on the offensive end, with shots coming with no time on the shot clock. Evansville only averages 10 assists per game and hardly gets points in the paint or layups. They are clearly last among MVC teams in most offensive categories. On defense, they play at a slow pace, something similar to Princeton. The stats will be misleading because of the deliberate pace throughout some games, but Evansville is still losing. This team will win only a few games in conference play and is likely to finish last. The games will be dull and in many cases, not competitive. Look for some low-scoring losses for the Purple Aces and some complete mismatches. The bright spot is Evansville has a cool nickname and nice team colors (purple and white). There won’t be many good things happening for Evansville during the season.
A few surprises and a few teams where they are expected to be. Conference play is approaching and enjoy the games and look for more articles about the MVC.
By Chad Fukuoka