Big Ten Football & Basketball Blog

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. With only ten days remaining until Selection Sunday, plenty of teams are making moves, in both directions. Some teams picked up statement-making wins, while others are losing games that they need to start winning to garner serious at-large consideration. Over the next week and a half, dozens of teams will have their resumes dissected from all angles, and you will hear the terms “RPI”, “SOS, “Last Ten Games”, and “Road Record” until you go numb. Still, many teams are failing to distinguish themselves from one another, meaning a difficult Selection Sunday for the Committee. Additionally, the bubble is extremely weak this season. The mid-majors are not putting forth many at-large candidates, meaning that we could see plenty of major-conference teams (yes, I’m counting the MVC and MWC) teams in the Big Dance this year. Of course, most conference tournaments haven’t even started yet, so there is still lots of basketball left to be played.

According to the numbers, there are 28 locks, plus 7 other teams that would be in as of today, from the major conferences. In other words, combine those 35 bids with 23 automatic bids (and another at-large for Butler), and there are only six bids up for grabs, with 21 teams vying for them.

Here is the breakdown for the Big Ten:

Locks (2): Ohio State, Wisconsin

Need to keep winning to avoid the bubble (2): Indiana, Michigan State

Here are the teams that still have a chance at an at-large bid:

Illinois (21-9 (9-6), RPI: 32, SOS: 19, vs. Top 50: 4-9, Last 10: 7-3, R/N: 7-6): The Fighting Illini are staying alive despite the off-court incidents. The car crash, Brian Carlwell’s ensuing injury, Jamar Smith’s leaving the team—and they are still in third in the Big Ten. Illinois has won six of seven, improving their RPI drastically. Their SOS is also very good, and they have no bad losses. However, the Illini had one of the easier Big Ten schedules, and don’t have many good wins in their resume. A win at Iowa would give them 10 Big Ten wins.

Purdue (19-10 (8-7), RPI: 44, SOS: 39, vs. Top 50: 5-7, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 4-9): The Boilermakers could be an interesting case come Selection Sunday. Provided they beat Northwestern this weekend, they will be 9-7 heading into the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue doesn’t have an impressive road record, but their power numbers are decent, and they own wins over Virginia, DePaul, Michigan State, Indiana, Michigan, and Illinois. However, they have two bad losses—to Minnesota and Indiana State. They need at least a win the conference tourney.

Michigan (20-10 (8-7), RPI: 48, SOS: 46, vs. Top 50: 4-8, Last 10: 4-6, R/N: 3-8): The Wolverines are actually playing well down the stretch—the exact opposite of previous years. They have won four of six, and picked up a couple of huge wins over Indiana and Michigan State. UM has a great chance to get a statement-making win this Saturday at home against Ohio State. If they win there, and get a win in the Big Ten Tournament, it will be tough to keep them out. Their road record is still not impressive, and they have been blown out in several big games this year.
 

This entry was posted on Saturday, March 3rd, 2007 at 9:34 am and is filed under Big Ten Sports General. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.