Road to Selection Sunday: Big Ten
After more than three weeks of conference play, there are only two things certain in the Big Ten: Wisconsin and Ohio State are clearly the top two teams in the conference and are locks for the Big Dance, and Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern, and Minnesota will finish as the bottom four in the conference–obviously not making the NCAA Tournament.
 That leaves a group of five teams–Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Illinois, and Purdue–fighting for up to three bids to the NCAA Tournament. It will be very tough for the Big Ten to get six or seven bids this season as a result of all the parity in the conference.
With that in mind, I’ve decided to take a look at each of those five teams’ resumes heading into the weekend:
Indiana: The Hoosiers were looking like the clear-cut #3 team in the conference until their offense went back to how it was in 2006 when they scored 43 points in a loss at Illinois on Tuesday. However, they still have a solid profile for the NCAA Tournament. They have a good RPI (23) and SOS (26), and don’t have any bad losses. However, they are 4-5 away from home, and are only 2-5 against teams in the RPI Top 50. Their best wins are home victories over Michigan State and Southern Illinois. With three of their next four at home, they could make a move into the “lock category”.
Michigan: If only the Wolverines could win on the road. At 16-5 overall and 4-2 in the Big Ten, UM has the record needed to get to the Dance. However, they are only 2-4 on the road and have lost by an average of almost 18 points per game in those road defeats. Additionally, Michigan does not have any marquee wins–their best victories are over Davidson, Purdue, and Illinois–all in Ann Arbor. Five of their next eight are on the road, which gives them plenty of time to pick up road Ws.
Michigan State: The Spartans are looking better and better in terms of their at-large position. After they dropped back-to-back Big Ten games to start the conference season, the Spartans have won four in a row to move to 17-4 overall, and 4-2 in the Big Ten. They have a good RPI (28), but don’t have a great SOS and are only 3-4 on the road. MSU does have some solid wins over Bradley, Texas, BYU, and Illinois, though. Three of their next four are on the road, and the lone home game is against Ohio State. That stretch will make or break their season.
Illinois: Facing the prospect of going 2-5 in the Big Ten with Indiana coming to Assembly Hall, the Illini played outstanding defense to knock off the Hoosiers and remain in the at-large hunt. They need to win some big games down the stretch, though. They have a mediocre RPI (42) and are only 2-7 against the RPI Top 50. Their best non-conference wins are over Missouri and Bradley. They do have the #12 SOS and a 5-4 road/neutral record, though. The Illini need to finish in the top four in the Big Ten, though.
Purdue: The Boilermakers are slowly moving themselves off the bubble and into the world of NIT contenders. They are now only 2-4 in the Big Ten after their sixth road loss in a row–a 16-point defeat at the hands of Michigan. Three of their next four are at home, and it would be wise for them to win at least three of those games to stay in the hunt. Purdue does not have a great RPI (52), and their 2-7 road/neutral record and 1-5 record against the RPI Top 50 aren’t helping matters.